Enhanced Application of Climate Prediction in Pacific Island Countries Project
[last updated February 6, 2006 4:08 PM]

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General Information
Partnership website(s)
    Expected Timeframe
    January 2002 - December 2006
    Partners
    Governments:
    • Government of Australia - Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID)
    • Government of Australia - Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology
    • Government of Fiji - National Meteorological Service (NMS) of Fiji, and also of other Pacific island countries
    		Major Groups:
      UN System:
        		Other intergovernmental organizations:
        • Agencies in several Pacific Island countries ()
        Other:
          		 
          Thematic Focus
          Primary Themes:
          • Climate change
          		 Secondary Themes:
          • Sustainable development of SIDS
          • Air pollution / Atmosphere
          Geographic Coverage
          Geographic Scope: Sub-regional South Pacific
          Country(ies) where the partnership is being implemented:
          Cook Islands, Fiji, Kiribati, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu
          National Focal Points
          At present, no information is available as to whether the partnership has made contact with the national focal points for sustainable development in the relevant countries.
          Goals and Objectives
          Summary of the partnership's goals and objectives
          This partnership developed from the SPREP Pacific Meteorological Services Needs Analysis Project. project aims to strengthen the capacity of Pacific island countries in climate prediction. It includes Fiji, Tonga, Cook Islands, Vanuatu, Tuvalu, Solomon Is, Kiribati and Niue. The project aims to upgrade the National Meteorological Services of participating island countries to enable them to provide better climate prediction support to industry government and the people of the Pacific island region. It will provide PC-based stand-alone statistical climate prediction services that are tailored to clients planning needs.
          Targets and Progress
          Partnership targets
          Expected results:
          * Enhanced NMS climate prediction capability and strengthening NMS comprehension of identified client groups' climate prediction needs.
          * Customised climate probability predictions produced by NMSs and Client groups working together, and backed by effective training in the prudent use of predicitons, including information on their strengths and weakenesses.
          Where possible, workshops will be linked to current conferences and meetings.
          Over the next three years the NMSs capable of higher level participation in the project shall have appropriate software installed on NMS computers; be trained in their own PIC in climate predictions and their prudent application; assisted in identifying and improving their client base; and in developing pilot industry specific applications for climate prediction.
          Progress against targets
          This $2.2 million 3 year project aims to strengthen the capacity of Pacific island countries in climate prediction. It includes Fiji, Vanuatu, Samoa, Tuvalu, Tonga, Cook Islands, Solomon Islands, Kiribati and Niue.The project aims to upgrade the National Meteorological Services of participating island countries to enable them to provide better climate prediction support to industry government and the people of the Pacific island region. The project provided PC-based stand-alone statistical climate prediction services software SCOPIC (Seasonal Climate Outlook for the Pacific Island Countries) that are tailored as far as possible within the scope of the project to meet clients planning needs.

          The latest version of SCOPIC was released in early October 2005. SCOPIC has been created and maintained by the contracted software specialist, Queensland Department of Primary Industries & Fisheries.

          The software is used to extract the statistical relationship between historical climate data in each country with a set of predictors (either SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures) or SOI (Southern Oscillation Index)) to produce local seasonal climate forecasts. Forecast verification can also be done by the software. The software has the flexibility to incorporate other historical input data that would enable NMS personnel and their clients to explore opportunities for extending predictions to variables such as crop production, fish catch and water resources.

          Upcoming activities include : introduction of a crop modelling software for Fiji sugar yields using climate prediction information; inclusion of drought monitoring tool in the software; implementation of a pilot project on application of climate forecasting in water management in Kiribati and the Solomon Islands; completion of the "Media, Public Awareness and Communications" and "Climate and Fisheries workshops (Samoa and Tonga (completed in October/November 2005), and Vanuatu and the Cook Islands (scheduled in February/March 2006) ); and further capacity building of Tuvalu Met Officers at the Fiji Met Service.

          The second Project Coordinating Committee will be held in Solomons at the same time as the Regional MET officers annual meeting in May 2006.
          Capacity-Building and Technology Transfer
          Arrangements for Capacity-Building and Technology Transfer
          • Human resources development/training
          • Education/building awareness
          • Technology transfer/exchange
          * Develop capacity of National Meteorological Services through the provision and tailoring of climate prediction software and training in its prudent use. * Senior representatives from industry and government engaged in climate sensitive activities will receive training in the causes of climate variability, and in how to interpret and make use of climate probability forecast information (typically, prediction information will consist of probabilities of monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature being above, below, and within the average range, up to several months ahead). Once the information is incorporated into planning and decision-making in a risk management context across a number of agencies and organisations, the wider community will benefit from improved planning, and the application of informed decision-making.
          Relationship to International Agreements on Sustainable Development
          How the partnership contributes to the implementation of Agenda 21, the Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21, and the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
          * Agenda 21 Objective 31.3 a: "To extend and open up the decision-making process and broaden the range of developmental and environmental issues where cooperation at all levels between the scientific and technological community and decision makers can take place".
          * Millennium Declaration: Resolution 17 on the special needs of Small Island Developing States. Relevant Sections of Agenda 21
          Scientific and technological community
          Relevant Sections of the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation
          Sustainable development of small island developing States
          Coordination and Implementation
          Coordination Mechanism of the Partnership
          Under the agreements between Australia and the participating PICs there will be a Project Co-ordinating Committee (PCC) consisting of senior PIC delegates concerned with provision and use of meteorological services in their respective countries, the Project Director and Team Leader, and AusAID representatives. This group will meet annually, synchronised where possible with the meeting(s) of meteorologists in the region.
          Implementation Mechanism of the Partnership
          The implementing organisation (the Bureau of Meteorology) will develop and assess the basic software program to be provided to the NMS operators, and will subsequently collaborate with the various stakeholders to arrive at a standard package. This standard software shall preferably possess sufficient formats and report generating capabilities to allow the one package to be standardised across the participating PICs. The basic package should be interchangeable wherever possible - so as to provide backup, and the possibility of emergency support of one NMS by another.
          This project has several main phases: installing the software and training NMS staff in its prudent use; training senior personnel in climate sensitive industries in using climate predictions in their decision-making; and implementing the service, including pilot projects. Monitoring of project outputs will involve a range of indicators including technical, social, and financial. Verifiable indicators have been established and will be used to assess progress on outputs.
          Resources
          Funding Currently Available
          Amount in US$: 2200000
          Source(s): Government
          The project will be initially funded through the Government of Australia's overseas aid program (AusAID).
          Non-financial resources available
          Type(s): Office space - Staff
          Source(s): Government
          The Bureau will provide office space and other facilities to support the project, and where required, will provide expert advice and guidance to the project team.
          Funding Sought
          Required Amount in US$: not specified
          Source(s) already approached: Additional funding will be sought from relevant governments and organisations.

          This project is an initiative under the Australia-US Climate Action Partnership, and accordingly the US Government, through NOAA, will provide as yet unspecified support for the project, including in-kind support, and possibly training and the provision of hardware.
          Non-financial resources sought
          Requirement(s): Staff
          Assistance with training and data provision has been sought
          Source(s) approached and details:
          National Institute for Water and Atmospheric Research, New Zealand.
          Additional Information
          Additional Relevant Information
          Background:
          The NMSs programs are set out in the Strategic Action Plan for the Development of Meteorology in the Pacific Region, 2002- 2009, adopted by all twenty-six SPREP members in 1999. Arising out of the discussion that led to the action plan was a meteorological needs assessment exercise, described in the report entitled "Pacific Meteorological Services: Meeting the Challenges" in May 2001.
          This needs analysis report - partially funded by AusAID - was commissioned by the South Pacific Regional Environmental Programme (SPREP) in early 2000, to assist in the identification of the requirements of the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) of twenty Pacific Island Countries (PICs). The study refined concepts for development assistance requirements into well-developed projects suited to aid donors for consideration. Key priorities were climate predictions and warning systems.

          The Project has reinforced the need for consultation with high level PIC Governments prior to significant in-country activity taking place. In Projects involving multiple countries, it is necessary to realise that one implementation schedule will most unlikely suit all, and this will have implications for the implementation schedule and the ability to meet specific timelines.